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One of the most frequently asked questions about Horse Racing Betting - 'Systems, do they work?' There are three types of punters regarding systems and during this piece I will refer to each in passing. • Those that use systems, lose with systems and think they work.
• Those that have used systems, didn't win and don't accept that they can work. • Those that have a system, win, won't tell, and are not believed to be credible! In the most disparaging of fashion, I can testify that those punters that fall into categories 1 & 2 don't know what they are doing, and those in No3 do, but can't prove it.
I can not even begin to estimate the time and effort I have put in over the years in trying to find a 'Golden Egg' system to beat the odds in Horse Racing. Even as I type this piece, I have a pice of software running in the background on this very laptop, collating thousands of bits (or is it Bytes?), of information from every Nursery run in the month of September for the past 11 years. It is assessing every runner, in every race distance. At the same time, it is also looking at every 3yo only handicap at every distance between 5f and 12f, and the same again for every 3yo+ handicap over the same distances. Once complete, and this will take a very powerful computer,something in the region of 8 hours to complete, I will have a data set of literally millions of cells of information, which I will filter and play around with for many many hours before deciding on what the strategy will be for the coming month. Centos Install Keychain here.
I do this every month, and I do it every year. For what may end up taking me something between 12-24 hours to complete, I may find one or two worthwhile bets to be struck, I may find twenty. It's a lot of work for little action. That's the biggest problem with systems. THEY ARE BORING! Because they are boring, many people you ask, 'Systems, do they work?' , will answer No2.
The reason they do not believe they work is because they have looked at a system but don't understand the system. Don't understand probability and don't have the patience to see a system through. I wonder how many people have started a system, whether it be a simple one such horses considered best drawn over 6f that are also Racing Post predicted favourite, or more complicated in using the second favourite in the Daily Mirror if the main Tipster has gone for it and it has previous course winning form. Regardless of how ridiculous an idea for a system is, they all have credence if followed for a certain amount of time.
I have no idea if either of the aforementioned ideas would work, I haven't checked. (if you want to try them, feel free, just mail me 10% if they turn out to be gooduns!) The main reason punter number two exists is because he wants a system that will provide instant results, instant profits and big ones at that! Well don't we all? But it doesnt work that way. Sure, systems are born from a single idea, but they are very plant like in that they need time investment (as well as cash), time to nurture, develop and 'create' your winning system. They also have a lifespan and die.
But more of that later. The single most frequent reason for system failure is lack of patience. You've come up with a great idea. You've researched it and back tested it against previous results. You've come across the perfect system that can't fail to provide big profits, it's proven. So you go to work and back the very next qualifier; LOSE!
And the next, LOSE! And the next and the next and you get the picture. You're average punter does not have the patience to back four losers, hell he may not have the bank after thinking he has stumbled upon the pot at the end of the rainbow, so the system is destined for the trash and the next qualifier isn't bet. You know what happens, BANG!
So he bets the next, LOSER! And the system is forgotten. The maths ignored.
(this example at single point level stakes has provided 6 clear points and over 100% return on investment), but these numbers are lost on our punter. He is out of pocket and scanning the paper for a DEAD CERT favourite to recoup the losses. You know what I'm talking about, and if you have been a punter for any length of time you know how it feels. If you don't, you're in denial! You've checked the system over hundred of previous qualifiers, races and bets and it worked. You've experimented with it in real life for only a handful of bets. Did you even realise that within your back tested results, there are losing runs of four, five even six runners.